Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the RMB to continue to depreciate relative to the US dollar in the next few months. China’s interest rate differential versus the US dollar has fallen deeper…
Executive Summary China: Can The Economy Recover Without Housing Revival The rebound in China’s business activity in June reflects the release of pent-up demand from the economic reopening after lockdowns in April and…
Chinese GDP expanded by a mere 0.4% y/y (-2.6% q/q) in Q2, slowing sharply from Q1’s 4.8% y/y rate and falling below expectations of 1.2% y/y. More recent data – rebounding retail sales and industrial production in…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
Executive Summary Following an unprecedented exodus by foreign investors, Indian stocks’ absolute valuations have cheapened significantly. A breakdown in crude oil prices will help put a floor under Indian firms’ profit…
China’s trade surplus surged to an all-time high of USD 97.9 billion in June. The increase reflects an 18% y/y jump in exports as well as a slowdown in import growth from 4% y/y to 1% y/y. The post-lockdown normalization…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing’s plan to bring forward RMB 2.6 trillion of infrastructure financing in H2 will not result in new investments. Rather, it will offset the drop in…