Executive Summary Semi Shipments-To-Inventory Ratios Are Falling In Korea And Taiwan Global semiconductor stock prices are vulnerable to the downside over the next three to six months. The global semiconductor industry…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…
China’s trade surplus widened from USD 30.6 billion to USD 47.4 billion March, surprising expectations that it would narrow to USD 21.7 billion. Both export and import dynamics explain the wider surplus. On the export…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the drop in the first quarter FX reserves reflects losses in China’s official FX asset portfolio and increased capital outflows. Newly released data…
Executive Summary Onshore Equity Market Outflow Pressures Remain, At Least In The Near Term China’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell in the first three months of 2022. The reduction was the largest quarterly fall…
China’s money and credit data surprised to the upside in March. Aggregate financing jumped to CNY 4.65 trillion from CNY 1.19 trillion and beat expectations of a CNY 3.55 trillion increase. Similarly, new bank loans more…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…
Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have essentially frozen a large share of the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Last month, Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov revealed that…
Executive Summary Natgas Price Surge Boosts Hydrogen's Prospects Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the surge in EU natural gas prices it provoked will accelerate investment in clean-hydrogen technology, which uses…