Executive Summary Euro Natgas Soars; LME Nickel Squeezed Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak's threat to halt shipmentsof natgas on Nord Stream 1 to Europe lifted European gas prices 25% overnight, and will…
With Russia and Ukraine accounting for less than 3% of Chinese exports, the Ukraine conflict is likely to have a limited direct impact on the Chinese economy. Data released on Monday reveal that China’s trade surplus beat…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should have a limited direct impact on China’s domestic economy, inflation and monetary policy. Chinese stocks were…
Executive Summary Chinese Onshore Stocks Are Less Impacted By External Factors We are upgrading Chinese onshore stocks from underweight to neutral relative to global stocks. At the same time, we are closing our tactical…
Executive Summary Wars Don’t Usually Affect Markets For Long We expect the war in Ukraine to stay within its borders, and therefore to have little impact on global growth. Markets will be volatile, but we recommend…
Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
On Friday the PBoC boosted liquidity support in the financial system by injecting $45.8 billion through seven-day reverse repo agreements. This is the greatest liquidity injection since September 2020. There are two main…
Executive Summary Risk Premium Abates, But Does Not Disappear The risk premium in crude oil and natural gas prices is abating, and we expect that to continue. In the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion, Brent…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that fixed-income investors should continue to favor Chinese government bonds over corporate bonds. The proper measure of corporate bond performance is excess…
Executive Summary Copper Demand Follows GDP European copper demand will increase on the back of still-accommodative monetary policy, coupled with a loosening of COVID-19-related gathering and mobility restrictions as the…