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Asia

Decelerating East Asian Trade Confirms Global Slowdown
September numbers for East Asian trade disappointed across the board. Japanese exports dropped 1.7% year-on-year (YoY) after rising 5.5% in August, and Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports decelerated to 2.7%YoY after previously rising more than 10%.…
Daily Insights
A Crude Assessment
Crude prices have been trendless but volatile in 2024. Oil’s choppy price action illustrates the demand and supply tug-o-war in the market. Our bias is for crude prices to weaken on a six-to-nine months horizon. Good economic news such as the resilience of…
Daily Insights
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The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
China Stimulus: Missing The Mark
China’s Housing Administration Chief held a press conference yesterday to unveil two property-sector stimulus plans. According to our China strategists, the details were underwhelming and led to a decline in Chinese equities. The major plan doubles credit…
Daily Insights
A Bearish Signal From Commodities
While recent cross-asset developments have sent a risk-on signal, with equities and bond yields both higher, the commodity complex has recently been sending a more somber message. “Dr. Copper” is a bellwether for the global economy given its industrial…
Daily Insights
Fade European Sentiment Uptick
Economic expectations for the both Germany and the Eurozone ticked up in October and surprised positively for the first time since they collapsed this summer. The assessment of current conditions however worsened, going from -84.5 to -86.9. The expectations…
Daily Insights
China Stimulus: Rich In Promises, Short In Details
Our China and Emerging Market strategy teams analyzed this weekend press conference by the China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), that provided additional details on the recently announced fiscal stimulus plan. Our colleagues view the recent announcement as…
Daily Insights
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Making Sense Of China’s Fiscal Promises

To produce a moderate economic recovery, at least RMB 3 trillion in additional government expenditures is needed in H1 2025. Our bias is that Beijing is not yet ready to launch such a massive fiscal support measure. Hence, volatility-adjusted equity returns in China will be poor.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Jing Sima, Arthur Budaghyan
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
NDRC Disappoints On Chinese Stimulus Details
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) provided no insights Tuesday on the size or nature of the fiscal stimulus Beijing promised in late September. The key takeaway of the authorities' first briefing following a weeklong national holiday…
Daily Insights

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