Dear Client, Next week, we will be sending you BCA Research’s Annual Outlook, featuring long-time BCA client Mr. X, who visits towards the end of each year to discuss the economic, financial and commodity market outlook for the…
Highlights Indonesian domestic demand is struggling to recover in the face of a very tight policy settings. Exceptionally high real borrowing costs continue to hurt non-financial sectors. This will hurt banks too as credit is stymied…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, regulators have been slow to backtrack property market reforms because China’s fiscal deficit has narrowed this year. In previous property market…
Taiwanese export orders decelerated sharply in October which suggests that global demand for manufactured goods is softening. Aggregate orders rose 14.6% y/y following a 25.7% y/y increase in September, and fell below…
Highlights The euro has entered a period of acute stress. Some of the EUR/USD’s plunge reflects the dollar’s broad-based strength. The dollar is supported by the market’s pricing of the Fed and China’s…
Despite broad-based dollar strength, USD/CNY has been depreciating recently. The CNY’s outperformance stands out as it marks a break from its correlation with China’s relative equity performance vis-à-vis the…
Dear Client, There will be no report next week as we will be working on our Quarterly Strategy Outlook, which will be published the following week. In the meantime, please keep an eye out for BCA Research’s Annual Outlook,…
Highlights Remain neutral on the US dollar. A breakout of the dollar would cause a shift in strategy. Russia’s conflict with the West is heating up now that Germany has delayed the certification of the Nord Stream II pipeline.…
China’s construction sector is a key source of global demand for industrial commodities and in turn the prices of raw materials such as copper, iron ore, steel, and aluminum. As such, the LMEX has historically tracked…
Highlights China’s slowdown will deepen, and US bond yields will likely rise. This augurs well for the US dollar but will produce a toxic cocktail for EM. The recent weakness in the commodity complex will continue. EM markets…