Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…
Highlights Evergrande is just a canary in the coalmine warning of the vulnerability of global real estate, which is now trading on its highest valuation ever. US house prices are now more extended versus rents than at the peak of the…
Chinese residential building starts and sales have been contracting since April and July, respectively. Similarly, the level of aggregate building construction activity appears to be rolling over. The Evergrande debacle presents…
The performance of global risk assets improved somewhat on Tuesday following Monday’s tumble on the back of concerns about the potential implications of an Evergrande default. Nevertheless, risks remain elevated. A key…
Highlights We cannot predict how China will manage Evergrande precisely but we have a high conviction that it will do whatever it takes to prevent contagion across the property sector. However, China’s stimulus tools are losing…
The possibility of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande’s collapse threatens the stability of the country’s economy and financial markets through multiple facets. The company accounts for an outsized share of outstanding…
BCA Research's US Investment Strategy service does not expect the fall of an overextended Chinese property developer to push the US out of Goldilocks and into too-cold territory. Reports that Evergrande will fail to make…
Highlights Global growth is peaking, but US growth is losing momentum relative to its peers. This has historically been negative for the greenback. Chinese monetary policy is no longer on a tightening path, and might ease going…
BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service expects Evergrande’s partial default to reinforce credit tightening in China. Evergrande will likely default on some of its liabilities but there will be a bailout or roll-…
Highlights The odds of a stronger recovery in EM oil demand next year are rising, as vaccines using mRNA technology are manufactured locally and become widely available.1 This will reduce local lock-down risks in economies relying on…