Highlights Portfolio Strategy Operating leverage could surprise on the strong side this year, based on the message from our pricing power and wage growth indicators. REITs are experiencing a playable recovery following the Fed-…

Highlights The level of Fed interest rates, in absolute or relative terms, has been a poor determinant of dollar bull markets. A more useful marker has been the relative performance of U.S. assets as well as relative growth rates.…

Highlights High Conviction Views: The global cyclical backdrop remains negative for government bond markets, and the recent declines in yields will not be sustained. We continue to recommend a below-benchmark overall duration stance,…

Highlights Duration: Bond market positioning is no longer at a bearish extreme and the economy is quickly approaching full employment. We expect Treasury yields will soon break through the upside of their post-election trading range.…

Portfolio Strategy Any meaningful weakness in the U.S. dollar could accelerate the budding recovery in corporate revenue growth after a multiyear malaise. Following this year's underperformance, lift the industrials sector to…

Highlights The European economy has outperformed that of the U.S. recently, prompting investors to bring forward their estimates of the first ECB rate hike. To make this judgement, one really needs to be positive on EM economies in…

Highlights The rally in risk assets appears to have stalled, raising fears that the misnamed "Trump Trade" has ended. Investors are attaching too much importance to the reality show in Washington and not enough to the…

Highlights Global political risks are overstated, at least in 2017; Global rally in risk assets hinges on hard data, not politics; But Trump and the GOP can still pass tax reforms or cuts this year; The EU's guidelines on Brexit…

Special Report

Highlights Dear Client, In light of the recent political crisis in South Africa, we are re-publishing the following brief from BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy service. As we have argued since 2015, South African politics are…

Highlights There are a number of market signals and indicators that are denoting opening cracks in the reflation trade in general and EM risk assets in particular. EM/China narrow money (M1) growth points to relapse in their growth…