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Asset Allocation

Back To Square One
It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released. The Russell 2000 gained 5.2% since…
Daily Insights
No Sustainable EM EPS Recovery In Sight
EM equities have dramatically underperformed their US and Eurozone peers in USD terms over the past 15 years. The inability of EM and EM Asia companies to grow their EPS largely explains EM equities “lost decade” (and a half). Since 2010, US EPS have grown…
Daily Insights
Is The Increase In Unemployment A False Alarm?
Markets have recouped some of the losses incurred in the aftermath of the July US Employment Situation report. Was the surprise rise in the unemployment rate a false alarm? Supply-side dynamics alone cannot explain the overall rise in the unemployment…
Daily Insights
China’s Strong July Imports Hide Lackluster Demand
Chinese exports in USD terms missed expectations in July, growing by 7.0% y/y, down from 8.6% in June. Conversely, imports rebounded smartly from a 2.3% contraction, rising by 7.2% in July and upending expectations of 3.2%. Slower export growth is…
Daily Insights
The Case For Overweighting The US, Even Now
August’s selloff has featured a rotation out of Big Tech. The Nasdaq shed 8% across Thursday, Friday, and Monday, led by concentrated selling among several Mega caps. Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft and Amazon shed 14%, 14%, 6% and 14% over the last three sessions,…
Daily Insights
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US Politics In August And September

Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
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PMA Quarterly Outlook: Going Beyond Traditional Asset Class Definitions – Growth, Inflation, Diversification, Income

We are growing positive on Growth assets with recession expectations increasing our optimism on entry points. Equities are led by APAC Private Equity, North America Venture Capital, and Europe Buyouts. Our outlook continues to improve on CRE within the Inflation & Diversification bucket while we are underweight Multi-Strategy amongst Hedge Funds. We maintain an overweight to Senior Direct Lending for Income with a preference for North America.

Private Markets & Alternatives by Brian Payne
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It’s Bear-zin Now: A Q&A

Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Should Investors Overweight EMs In A Global Portfolio?
Outside of the US, forward earnings have grown at an underwhelming pace this year. Forward earnings for MSCI US have expanded by 7.3% in 2024YTD while MSCI EMU has remained flat and MSCI Japan has contracted by 4.9%. Against this backdrop, EMs stand out as…
Daily Insights
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q2/24: Stay The Defensive Course

In this report, we present the quarterly review of our Model Bond Portfolio. Rebounding growth and political instability led to slightly negative portfolio performance in Q2/2024. As global growth starts to moderate, we continue to favor government bonds over credit. Maintain a defensive portfolio stance.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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