Flash PMIs suggests that the tailwind to services from pent-up demand during the pandemic is easing and that although the global manufacturing downturn is bottoming, it is not meaningfully reaccelerating. In the case of the US…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the combination of rising oil prices, an appreciating US dollar, and mounting US bond yields constitutes a triple whammy for US share prices. One risk that…
While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading…
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the structural bull case for carbon credits remains compelling. However, tactical investors should brace for prices to plateau or even correct over the next 12…
Friday’s US employment report suggests that the softening of the labor market is continuing at a steady pace. Although nonfarm payroll employment in June and July was revised down by 110 thousand, the 187 thousand increase…
Global financial markets relapsed in August. After a relatively strong performance in June and July, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month as investors shifted their focus to the…