According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. In classical physics, the trajectory of an object…
Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news…
BCA’s Global Asset Allocation service (GAA) recommends a defensive multi-asset portfolio allocation due to a high probability of recession. However, our colleagues also add a hedge to manage upside risk because they do not…
A range of indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is currently under duress. But should this weakness be extrapolated into the rest of the year? The US manufacturing cycle tends to follow a very predictable wave-…
On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. The headline index dropped from -17.0 to -22.5 in July, significantly below expectations of a more muted deterioration to…
On a 12-month investment horizon, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service recommends a defensive stance: Overweight government bonds, and underweight equities and credit. The US stock market trades on 19x forward…
Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
Canadian inflation slowed in May, slowing to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis from 4.4% in April. This matched market expectations, with the monthly increase of 0.4% (versus 0.7% in April), slightly lower than the 0.5% consensus…