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The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.
Special Report We analyzed US bear markets since 1954 to identify reliable indicators for distinguishing new equity bull markets from bear market rallies. Our checklist of indicators does not suggest it is time to overweight equities in a multi-…
Macroeconomic and business conditions are gradually becoming more favorable for Tech as the bottoming of demand is in sight. Yet, we don’t believe that now is an attractive entry point - the good news is fully priced in, and…
Special Report This is the first of two Special Reports aiming to answer client questions in response to the recent dramatic changes in stock-bond correlations. In this report we focus on what role US Treasurys have played since 1872, how the…
The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we…
Special Report Highlights Market expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year reflect either an extremely mild US recession, or a nonrecessionary scenario in which inflation falls rapidly back toward the Fed’s target. In the case of a true…
In Section I, we explain why we do not see the deceleration in US inflation, the likely near-term pickup in European growth, and the end of China’s dynamic zero-COVID policy as signs of a sustainable rebound in global economic…
Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy will intensify over the coming months, allowing equities to rally. However, even if an equilibrium of high employment and low inflation is reached, it will be difficult to keep the economy…
China's reopening is much more positive for the Chinese economy than it is for the rest of the world, as it will boost its domestic service sector activity and consumer spending much more than the industrial economy. A slowdown in…
In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese…