Retail flows into US equities have been extremely strong this year, contributing to the healthy performance of US stocks. However, this raises the question whether the market is now vulnerable to a pullback in retail demand.…
Dear Client, We are sending you our Strategy Outlook today where we outline our thoughts on the global economy and the direction of financial markets for 2022 and beyond. Next week, please join me for a webcast on Friday, December 10th…
Highlights Indonesian domestic demand is struggling to recover in the face of a very tight policy settings. Exceptionally high real borrowing costs continue to hurt non-financial sectors. This will hurt banks too as credit is stymied…
Highlights US growth will slow next year, not because demand will falter, but because supply-side constraints will prevent the economy from producing as much output as households and businesses want to buy. If aggregate demand…
Highlights Equity valuations are extremely stretched versus bonds, so there is little wiggle room for bonds to sell off before pulling down large tracts of the stock market. We estimate that bond yields can rise by no more than 30 bps…
Both the ISM and Markit PMIs suggest that US manufacturing activity accelerated in September. The ISM index increased 1.2 points to a four-month high of 61.1, surprising expectations of a decline. Similarly, the Markit measure…
Emerging market currencies have recently rolled over in early-June and are depreciating sharply vis-à-vis the US dollar. Odds are that this downtrend will continue. On the domestic front, it is true that many Emerging Market…
Highlights Recommended Allocation The global economy will continue to grow at an above-trend rate over the next 12 months and central banks will remove accommodation only slowly.But the second year of a bull market is often…