Highlights Chart 1More Stimulus Forthcoming? Last week we posited that bond yields could move modestly higher during the next couple of months as the US economy re-opens and economic growth recovers. However, any economic…
The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of May 29, 2020. The model has not made any significant change this month. It has kept the same order for the top four overweight countries (Spain, Australia, Sweden,…
Feature The key to how markets will move over the coming 12 months is whether the coronavirus pandemic turns out to be a short-term (albeit severe) disruption to the world economy, or something more fundamentally damaging. Markets…
An analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights Due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are…
Highlights The good stock market = ‘growth defensives’ like technology that benefit from lower bond yields. The bad stock market = ‘value cyclicals’ like banks that suffer from lower bond yields. Structurally…
Highlights Investment Grade Sector Valuation: Our investment grade corporate bond sector valuation models for the US, euro area, UK, Canada and Australia show some common messages, as markets have adjusted to a virus-stricken world.…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The Fed’s extremely easy monetary backdrop along with easy fiscal policy remain the dominant macro themes, and they will continue to underpin the equity market. We remain constructive on the equity…
Highlights German bunds and Swiss bonds are no longer haven assets. The haven assets are the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US T-bonds. Gold is less effective as a haven asset. During this year’s coronavirus crash, the gold…
Highlights Treasuries: Despite surging issuance, long-dated Treasury yields will move only slightly higher this year, driven by a modest recovery in global demand. There is also a risk that a second wave of COVID infections will send…