Highlights Uncertainty & Yields: Global bond yields, driven to all-time lows as investors seek safety amid rioting markets, now discount a multi-year period of very weak global growth and inflation. Bond Portfolio Strategy:…
Highlights Duration: It is too soon to call the bottom in bond yields. To help make that call we will be looking for when: daily new COVID-19 infections reach zero, global growth indicators improve, US economic indicators worsen,…
Highlights An analysis on Colombia is available below. If EM share prices hold at current levels, a major rally will likely unfold. If they are unable to hold, a substantial breakdown will likely ensue. The direction of EM US dollar…
Highlights Financial markets are now fully priced for an economic downturn lasting one quarter… …but they are not fully priced for a recession. To go tactically long equities versus bonds requires a high conviction that…
Highlights Chart 1Making New Lows While the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is falling in China, the virus is spreading rapidly to the rest of the world. It is now clear that the outbreak will not be contained, though…
Feature “Bayesian: …statistical methods that assign probabilities or distributions to events…based on experience or best guesses before experimentation and data collection and that apply Bayes' theorem to revise…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy It is still early to bottom fish, and trying to catch the proverbial falling knife does not interest us for cyclically oriented capital. Uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus epidemic and its effects on…
Highlights The near-term path for the DXY remains up. Uncertainty about the trajectory of global growth is a potent tailwind. Central bank ammunition will eventually put a floor under global growth, but it remains a powerless weapon…
We published a report titled “Markets Too Complacent About The Coronavirus” before US stocks opened for trading on Friday, February 21st. In that piece, we argued that equities were at risk of swooning as investors came to…