Highlights Global growth will quickly recover if the Covid-19 outbreak is soon controlled. If the virus's spread doesn't slow, a worldwide recession will take hold in 2020. BCA remains cyclically bullish, but tactical caution…
Overweight Investors tend to overreact to events such as virus epidemics, but we deem that such fears typically create trading opportunities, especially in the hardest-hit sectors. Similar to hotels (that we upgraded to…
Highlights Analyses on Asian semis, Argentina and Russia are available on pages 7, 12 and 14, respectively. The most likely trajectory for Chinese growth will be as follows: the initial plunge in business activity will be…
Highlights Duration: Bond yields will stay low until the daily number of new COVID-19 cases falls to zero, at which point a sell-off is likely. We therefore recommend maintaining below-benchmark portfolio duration on a 6-12 month…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Most of the macro and operating indicators we track are sending conflicting messages on the anticipated direction in the cyclical/defensive ratio. Stay on the sidelines on cyclicals versus defensives.…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Receding interest in the coronavirus epidemic, rising demand prospects, a looming profit turnaround and compelling valuations, all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish the S&P hotels index.…
Highlights A currency portfolio comprised of the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Norwegian krone is likely to outperform a more diversified basket over multiple macroeconomic scenarios. Our work suggests that valuation matters for…
Highlights Malaysian businesses and households have been deleveraging and the economy risks entering a debt deflation spiral. This macro-backdrop is bond bullish. EM fixed income-dedicated investors should keep an overweight position…