Highlights Chart 1The 2003 SARS Roadmap The bond market impact from the coronavirus has already been substantial. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to 1.51%, below the fed funds rate. Meanwhile, the investment grade…
Feature Everyone’s asset-allocation plans for the year have been disrupted by the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Our view is that, while the virus is serious and will hurt the Chinese and global economy in the short term,…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy China’s monetary easing, the resilient US dollar, weak operating industry metrics and a looming margin squeeze all signal that an underweight stance is still warranted in the S&P chemicals index.…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of January 31, 2020. The model made a significant change in its allocation this month. The allocation to the US is now…
Highlights Collective market signals suggest a low but non-negligible probability of a dollar spike due to the coronavirus. Stay long the yen as a portfolio hedge. Short CHF/JPY bets also make sense. Our limit sell on the gold/…
Highlights The liquidity-driven rally will soon be followed by an acceleration in global growth. The economic recovery will bump up expectations of long-term profit growth. The dollar has downside, but the euro will not benefit much…
Highlights The coronavirus scare is the catalyst for the recent correction, not the cause. The true cause is that the stock market had reached a point of groupthink-triggered instability and therefore needed the slightest catalyst to…