Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…
Highlights Stock markets are set to produce low single digit returns in 2020. Favour stocks over bonds and cash, especially where bond yields are zero or negative – specifically, Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden. Underweight…
Highlights Duration: The bond market’s bearish trend remains intact, but suffered a hiccup last week as some economic data disappointed. Our sense is that the worst of the global growth slowdown is over, but a rebound in our…
Dear Client, Instead of our regular weekly report next Monday, this Friday November 22, you will receive our flagship publication “The Bank Credit Analyst” with our annual investment outlook. Our regular publication service…
Highlights The attractiveness of European stocks is relative to European bonds rather than relative to non-European stocks. Despite vastly different stock market valuations in Germany, Japan, and the US, the implied prospective 10-year…
Highlights Duration: A survey of the five factors that determine the path for Treasury yields suggests that further upside is likely. We see a clear path to 2.5% for long-maturity Treasury yields as recessionary risk moves to the back…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Depressed technicals, compelling valuations, macro tailwinds, improving operating fundamentals and the messages from our relative profit growth models and relative Cyclical Macro Indicators all signal…