Highlights Portfolio Strategy Recession odds continue to tick higher, according to the NY Fed’s probability of recession model, at a time when global growth is waning, U.S. profit growth is contracting and the non-financial ex-…
Highlights The onset of a down-oscillation in growth strongly suggests a rotation out of the growth-sensitive Industrials and Materials into the relatively defensive Healthcare sector. But if the sharpest move in bond yields has…
Highlights Q2/2019 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio underperformed the custom benchmark index by -19bps in the second quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: Our below-benchmark overall duration stance…
Highlights Chart 1Looks Like 2016 & 1998 The Treasury market continues to price-in a recession-like outcome for the U.S. economy, embedding 83 basis points of Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months. But last week’s…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Rising lumber prices, melting interest rates and profit-augmenting industry productivity gains all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish the S&P home improvement retail (HIR) index. Poor…
Highlights Current activity indicators are now losing momentum, or outright rolling over. This confirms that European (and global) growth is now entering a down-oscillation. Why? It is the rate of decline in the bond yield that has…
Highlights Corporate Spreads: The Fed’s dovish pivot prolongs the period of time before the yield curve inverts, thus extending the window for corporate bond outperformance. Investors should remain overweight corporate bonds,…