GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of June 28, 2019. The quant model has upgraded Sweden to the second largest overweight (from a slight underweight) mainly…
Highlights Central banks globally have turned dovish, with the Fed virtually promising to cut rates in July. But this will be an “insurance” cut, like 1995 and 1998, not the beginning of a pre-recessionary easing cycle.…
Highlights Fed policy is likely to proceed in two stages: An initial stage characterized by a highly accommodative monetary policy, followed by a second stage where the Fed is raising rates aggressively in response to…
Highlights U.S. consumption remains robust despite the recent intensification of global growth headwinds. The G-20 meeting will not result in an escalation nor a major resolution of Sino-U.S. tensions. Kicking the can down the road is…
Highlights Fed: The Fed will cut rates in July, and possibly once more this year. This extra stimulus will help boost global growth in the second half of 2019. Credit: With inflation expectations low, the Fed will not risk upsetting…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Melting inflation expectations, widening relative indebtedness, expensive adjusted relative valuations, high odds of a further drop in relative profit margins and the high-octane small cap status all…
Highlights We are searching for evidence of an imminent end to this business cycle, … : Investors who recognize the onset of the recession in a timely fashion will have a leg up on the competition all the way through the…
Highlights The unifying chorus among global central banks is currently for more monetary stimulus. In the race towards lower interest rates, the ultimate winners will be pro-cyclical currencies. Italian 10-year real government bond…