Highlights Fed: Depressed U.S. Treasury yields now discount more rate cuts than the FOMC is likely to deliver, even for “insurance” purposes to offset the negative growth impacts from trade policy uncertainty. Maintain a…
Highlights We spent nearly all of last week engaged in dialogue with clients: Over the course of a dozen face-to-face meetings, and multiple follow-up questions, we learned that crowding out is a real phenomenon. The Fed and trade…
Highlights The European barometer that best gauges global growth is euro area growth excluding inventory adjustments. Euro area growth excluding inventory adjustments is now running at a blistering 4.2 percent nominal pace –…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward tradeoff remains squarely to the downside and we are turning cyclically (3-12 month horizon) cautious on the prospects of the broad equity market. The Presidential cycle, UBER’s IPO…
Highlights Chart 1Bond Rally Supports Stocks Financial markets are pricing-in an intensifying global growth slowdown, but not all assets are responding equally. U.S. Treasuries have rallied strongly, while equities and credit…
Highlights Inverted Curves & Recessions: While an inverted U.S. Treasury curve has been a reliable early indicator of past U.S. recessions, the current inversion appears “too soon” relative to the evolution of U.S.…
Feature The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of May 31, 2019. The quant model has not made significant changes in the major country allocations, but has further increased Australia’s overweight after the…
Highlights We talk about “Mr. Market,” the bond market and the equity market, but prices in free economies and markets are set by innumerable interactions between individuals: Hence the failure of central planning; without…