Highlights Monetary policy remains accommodative in Japan, but will tighten on a relative basis if the Bank Of Japan (BoJ) stands pat. The BoJ’s margin of error is non-trivial, since a small external shock could well tip the…
Please note that analysis on India is published below. Highlights This report reviews several financial market-based indicators and price signals from various corners of global markets that are pertinent to the global business cycle,…
Highlights The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance is slightly accommodative for the U.S., but it is too tight for the rest of the world. Inflation is likely to slow further before making a durable bottom toward year-end.…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward equity market tradeoff is to the downside and we remain tactically cautious. The trade war re-escalation risks pushing out the global growth recovery to early-2020 and has shaken our…
Highlights Corporate Bonds: Corporate bond spreads have been slow to price-in the escalation of the U.S./China trade dispute. Nimble investors should take steps to mitigate their near-term (0-3 month) exposure to credit spreads, but…
Highlights Falling Yields: There have been three main drivers of the latest decline in global bond yields: slower global growth, softer inflation expectations and increased safe-haven demand for bonds given the intensifying U.S.-China…
Highlights In the second half of 2019, economic growth will stop accelerating… …but an underpinning of equity valuations will limit sell-off magnitudes to around 10 percent or so, rather than deeper sustained plunges.…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Macro headwinds, deficient demand along with rising chemicals stockpiles that have dealt a blow to industry pricing power warn that chemicals stocks are on the verge of a breakdown. Downgrade to a below…