Highlights Stay tactically overweight to equities for the time being. Close the overweight to industrial commodities versus equities. The financials, basic resources, and industrials equity sectors can continue to outperform for a…
Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…
Highlights Hyman Minsky famously said that “stability begets instability.” The converse is also true: Instability begets stability. None of the preconditions for a U.S. recession are in place yet. The Fed’s decision…
Highlights Chart 1Look For Rate Hikes In H2 2019 First things first: The Fed’s rate hike cycle is not over. Last week’s FOMC statement told us that the Fed will be “patient” and Chairman Powell cited…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Chinese reflation, the ongoing global capex upcycle, and the Fed induced cap on the greenback with the knock-on effect of higher commodity prices, all signal that it still pays to overweight S&P…
Highlights Our non-consensus inflation and Fed views just got even more non-consensus: Media and sell-side commentators were quick to speculate about an end to the tightening cycle following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but we don…
Feature The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of January 31st, 2019. The quant model slightly reduced the size of the underweight to the U.S. equities, but U.S. remains the largest underweight in the model and no…
Feature Half Way Back Since BCA went overweight global equities in late December, the MSCI ACWI index has rallied by 8% and the S&P 500 is back to only 8% off its September historical high. So far, this has been little more than a…
Highlights Global equity markets have managed to recoup some of last year’s plunge since we upgraded stocks to overweight in late December. The equity rally has been tentative, however, and so far feels more like a technical…
Highlights We advocate implementing asset allocation not across EM assets, but rather relative to their DM counterparts. EM stocks should be part of a global equity portfolio. EM sovereign and corporate credit should be part of a…