Highlights Global Corporates: The Fed is now clearly signaling a near-term capitulation to tightening financial conditions alongside slowing global growth and inflation. A pause in the U.S. rate hiking cycle, after credit spread…
Highlights Corporates: The same indicators that called the early-2016 peak in credit spreads are once again sending a positive signal. Investors should tactically increase exposure to corporate bonds at the expense of Treasuries.…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The budding recovery in Chinese infrastructure outlays and easing in monetary conditions, a pause in the U.S. dollar’s rally on the back of a more dovish Fed and improving domestic steel final-…
Highlights EM equity and credit outperformance versus the U.S. in the past three months was an aberration in the cyclical and structural downtrend. Hence, the recent outperformance of EM assets provides a good entry point for…
Highlights All of our recent investment recommendations have performed very strongly but have further to go: 1. Own a combination of European banks plus U.S. T-bonds. 2. Overweight EM versus DM. 3. …
Highlights Chart 1Checklist To Buy Credit The sell-off in spread product continued through the holiday season, but with spreads now looking more attractive, it is time to consider increasing exposure to corporate credit. Much…
Highlights Risk assets have had a rough go of it since we last published on December 17th: Equities have been through the wringer, spreads have widened sharply, and the 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled to an 11-month low. We don…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of December 31, 2018. The quant model reduced Spain’s large overweight to a slight overweight, and further downgraded the…
Feature No Recession – Add To Risk Again Markets have been notably weak and volatile since we published our 2019 Outlook1 in late November. Over the past couple of months, global equities have fallen by more than 10%, the 10-year…
Highlights Investors ran for cover in December as they succumbed to a litany of worries regarding the outlook. The key question is whether the pessimism is overdone or an extended equity bear market is underway. Our outlook for the U.…