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Highlights Portfolio Strategy Overbought technicals, pricey valuations, decelerating global growth, declining capex, rising indebtedness and softening operating metrics argue for hopping off the S&P railroads index. Rising…
Highlights We do not view October's equity downdraft as a signal to further trim risk assets to underweight. Nonetheless, stocks have not yet fallen enough to justify buying either. The economic divergence between the U.S. and the…
Highlights Asset allocation: overweight industrial commodities versus equities... ...and neutral equities versus bonds. The euro: neutral for a broad basket but stay long JPY/EUR. The pound: long-term upside, but a better entry…
Highlights Duration Strategy: The recent market turmoil was a long overdue risk asset correction that does not change any fundamental underpinnings for rising global bond yields. Stay below-benchmark on overall global duration exposure…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Debt saddled small caps have to wrestle with rising interest rates at a time when they lack a valuation cushion. Tack on their high beta status and investors should continue to avoid small caps and…
Highlights The current market action in the EM equity space qualifies as a bear market, not a correction. Yet the magnitude of this drawdown (25%) is still considerably smaller than the median stock price drop (45%) of previous bear…
Highlights The long term direction for the pound is higher... ...but as the EU withdrawal bill passes through the U.K. parliament, expect a very hairy ride. The stock markets in Norway, Sweden and Denmark are driven by energy,…
Highlights Rising U.S. bond yields will continue to put downward pressure on global stocks in the near term, but will not trigger an equity bear market until rates reach restrictive territory. We are still at least 12 months away from…
Please note that a Special Alert titled "Brazil: A Regime Shift?" discussing investment implications of the weekend elections was published on Tuesday. Highlights The combination of rising U.S. bond yields and slumping…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A playable sector rotation opportunity has emerged, as we first argued at the recent BCA investment conference: Financials, industrials and select tech subgroups will lead the next phase of the market…