Special Report

According to market lore, one should never say, "It's Different This Time". But every time is always different: there is a never a previous period that perfectly matches the current environment. That is why forecasting is so…

Highlights Global QE has made bonds as risky as equities. Thereby, global QE has forced investors to accept identically depressed returns from equities and from bonds, requiring equity and other risk-asset valuations to surge. The…

Feature GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of July 31, 2018. The quant model lifted its U.S. allocation to be in line with the benchmark weight at the expense of Spain…

Feature Downside Risks Haven't Gone Away We downgraded risk assets to neutral in last month's Quarterly Portfolio Outlook,1 citing an increasing number of risks to the equity bull market. Specifically, we warned about the…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week I am sending you a Special Report written by Mark McClellan, Chief Strategist of the monthly Bank Credit Analyst. Mark deals with the implications of the U.S./Sino trade war for U.S. equity sectors. He identifies…

Highlights President Trump has taken the next step in the trade war by charging some of America's major trading partners with outright currency manipulation. However, we are not headed for Plaza Accord 2.0, because neither the ECB…

Highlights FTSE100 = Overweight global Oil and Gas in pounds. Eurostoxx50 = Overweight global Banks in euros. Nikkei225 = Overweight global Industrials in yen. S&P500 = Overweight global Technology in dollars. Of these four…

Highlights Many investors remain overweight equities; BCA recommends a neutral stance. Investors should position portfolios for rising rates. Fed Chair Powell weighed in last week on yield curve, the impact of the Trump…

Highlights Duration Checklist: An update of our medium-term Duration Checklist highlights that the strategic backdrop for global government bonds remains bearish. A below-benchmark overall portfolio duration stance is still warranted…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Firming crude oil prices and recovering capex budgets suggest that energy E&P stocks are in a sweet spot and primed for outperformance. Decreasing refining margins, a deteriorating supply/demand…