Highlights Portfolio Strategy A virtuous software capex upcycle will continue to bolster industry sales/profits in the coming months. We reiterate our high-conviction overweight recommendation on the S&P software index. Depressed…

Recommended Allocation  A Series Of Unfortunate Events Markets have taken a series of hits in recent months - sharp drops in emerging market currencies, a political crisis in Italy, and the ongoing trade war between the U.S.…

Highlights Italy is a live drama. However, both Italy and Brussels have constraints that should lead to a compromise on fiscal stimulus. Italy will not leave the euro in the foreseeable future, and the European Central Bank has little…

Highlights The global trade slowdown will intensify, even if U.S. domestic demand remains robust. The large emerging Asian bourses will recouple to the downside with their EM peers. Market-neutral EM equity portfolios should consider…

Highlights The risk/reward balance for risk assets remains unappealing this month, even though our base-case outlook sees them outperforming cash and bonds over the next 6-12 months. The number of items that could take equity markets…

Highlights In this Weekly Report, we review all of the individual trades in our Tactical Overlay portfolio. These are positions that are intended to complement our strategic Model Bond Portfolio, typically with shorter holding periods…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy A near-term pullback in U.S. Treasury yields, still robust housing fundamentals and compelling valuations that reflect most, if not all, of the bad homebuilding news and offset thorny input cost inflation…

Highlights Global Yields: Relative growth and inflation trends continue to favor the U.S., with divergences widening as non-U.S. is downshifting. This means that the cyclical peak in spreads between U.S. Treasuries and other developed…

Special Report

As with all bull markets, the question on investors' minds has never been if it would end but when it will end as the former is a certainty and the latter is the source of alpha. We have previously noted that by almost all measures,…

Highlights 0 To 3 Months: Extended net short positioning and the recent moderation in economic data suggest that Treasury yields are ripe for a near-term pullback. Investors who are able should consider tactically buying bonds on a 0-3…