Highlights Recommended Allocation Due to the boost from U.S. fiscal stimulus, we do not expect recession until 2020. Despite some signs that growth is peaking, global economic fundamentals remain robust. Markets have wobbled…
Highlights Global growth has peaked, but will remain firmly above trend for the remainder of the year. The composition of global growth is shifting back towards the U.S. As often happens in the late stages of business-cycle expansions…
Highlights There is growing evidence that China's industrial sector is slowing, as are Asian trade flows. EM stocks have seen their tops. Even though current trade tensions between the U.S. and China could well dissipate, we are at…
Highlights Continue to underweight the most cyclical sectors - Banks, Basic Materials, and Energy. As predicted, global growth is losing steam. This implies that the Eurostoxx50 will struggle to outperform the S&P500. Continue…
Highlights The 2018 outlook for both economic growth and corporate profits remains constructive for risk assets, although evidence is gathering that global growth is peaking. Some measures of global activity related to capital…
Highlights Fixed Income Asset Allocation: Global growth indicators remain solid, while inflation pressures continue to build. Central banks will remain focused on those factors, and not news-driven market volatility spikes, until the…
Highlights After the March FOMC Meeting, market pricing for short-term rates is largely consistent with the Fed's forecasts. For investors and the Fed, the health of the economy and earnings matter more than Trump's political…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The reward/risk profile of air freight & logistics is extremely attractive. Synchronized global growth, the capex upcycle, a falling dollar and secular advance in e-commerce compel us to add this…
Highlights Two big distortions in the euro area economy arose because Germany depressed its wages for a decade, and then Italy failed to fix its broken banks for a decade... ...but both distortions are now correcting. Long-term…
Highlights The global economic mini-cycle is set to weaken while the euro is set to grind higher. Upgrade Telecoms to overweight. Also overweight Healthcare and Airlines. Underweight Banks, Basic Materials and Energy. Overweight…