Watch Inflation Expectations How much longer can this go on? Global equities were up 6% in January alone (the 15th consecutive month of positive returns), and investors are increasingly asking how much further this bull market has to…
Highlights The German 10-year bund yield rising to 1%, or the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield rising to 3% would be a trigger to downgrade equities and upgrade bonds... ...especially as the blue sky expectations for global growth in H1 2018…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A stable China, a depreciating U.S. dollar, rising commodity prices and sustained synchronized global growth signal that the industrials complex, especially the most cyclical part, remains on a solid…
Highlights U.S. equities 'melted up' in January as tax cuts made the robust growth/low inflation sweet spot even sweeter. Ominously, recent market action is beginning to resemble a classic late cycle blow-off phase. The…
Highlights A thorough audit of our trade book highlights that our country and sector allocation recommendations have been quite profitable for investors. Of the 12 active trades in our book, 11 have generated a positive return,…
Highlights One of the biggest mistakes in finance is to equate risk with volatility. The correct measure of risk is the negative skew in payoff distributions. If 10-year bond yields should rise another 40 bps, equities would become…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Relative sector index composition, the macro backdrop, relative operating metrics along with compelling valuations and washed out technicals suggest that a value over growth style bias is warranted.…
Highlights The Beige Book released on January 17 keeps the Fed on track to raise rates at least three times this year and highlights the impact of the tax bill on the economy. BCA's Big 5 Bank Lending Beige Book highlights several…
Highlights Trade #1: Go Short The December 2018 Fed Funds Futures Contract. The trade has gained 64 bps since we initiated it. We are lifting the stop to 60 bps and targeting a profit of 75 bps. Trade #2: Go Long Global Industrial…