Overweight Selected Companies Dear Client, This week I am away visiting clients in Australia, so we are sending you this report written by my colleague Oleg Babanov (Emerging Market Equity Sector Strategy). Oleg identifies select…
Highlights Chart 12017 Bond Returns Treasuries sold off for the third consecutive month in November (Chart 1), and with Congress about to deliver tax cuts and core inflation showing signs of bottoming, the bond bear market is…
Highlights A more bearish backdrop for bonds, led by the U.S.: Faster global growth, with rebounding inflation expectations, will trigger tighter overall global monetary policy. This will be led by Fed rate hikes and, later in 2018,…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update One thing worth noting is that the model now is neutral on Canada, after a long-standing underweight. Canada's valuation ranking had been improving, but the signal was only confirmed…
Watching The Warning Signals Recommended Allocation Two of the three indicators we have focused on all year as reliable signals of recession (and, therefore, of the timing for reducing exposure to risk assets) have wobbled in the…
Highlights Idea 1: Long Eurodollar, short Euribor - December 2022 interest rate futures contracts. Alternatively just go outright long the Eurodollar contract. Idea 2: Long EUR/USD Idea 3: Underweight Basic Materials equities versus…
Highlights China stands out as the most likely candidate to send negative shock waves through EM and commodities in 2018. Granted the ongoing policy tightening in China will likely dampen money growth further, the only way mainland…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global capex growth, a derivative of BCA's synchronized global growth thesis, will be a dominant theme next year, benefiting cyclicals over defensives. Three high-conviction calls are…