Feature Shrugging Off The Political Noise All the political noise of August (White House resignations, Charlottesville, North Korean missile launches, the looming U.S. debt ceiling) could do no more than trigger a minor market wobble: at…
Highlights Financial markets have slipped into a 'risk off' phase. The upbeat second quarter earnings season in the U.S., Japan and the Eurozone was overwhelmed by a number of negative events. Equity bear markets are usually…
Highlights Mario Draghi will signal the ECB's intention to further taper asset purchases during his Jackson Hole address later today, while cautioning that rate hikes remain a way away. The spread between long-term U.S. and euro…
Highlights Your portfolio cash weighting should be at least in the middle of its range, until the observed volatility of risk assets rises meaningfully from its record low. Cyclically add long SEK/USD to long EUR/USD. Within a…
Highlights Beware of asset managers' and leveraged funds' large net long positions in EM currencies. Overextended net long positions in EM and commodities currencies signify overbought conditions in EM risk assets in general…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Execute a long S&P energy/short global gold miners pair trade to take advantage of the liquidity-to-growth handoff. Initiate another new trade, long S&P materials/short S&P utilities, to…
Highlights Washington must establish a "credible threat" if it is to convince Pyongyang that negotiations offer the superior outcome; The process of establishing such a credible threat is volatile; U.S. Treasurys, along…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy We reiterate our recent overweight calls in banks/financials and energy. Chemicals/materials and telecom services no longer deserve a below benchmark allocation. Pharma/health care and utilities are now…
