Go long Australian 10-year government bond futures as the RBA’s hawkish tilt is unlikely to translate into meaningful tightening. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.60% but shifted to a more hawkish stance, signaling a potential hike…
Australia’s October NAB Survey showed broad underlying strength, with business conditions and sales hitting multi-year highs. Business conditions rose to +9 from +8, the highest since March 2024, while confidence dipped slightly to +…
The RBA held rates at 3.60%, maintaining patience as inflation proves sticky and the economy stays resilient. The central bank noted that recent inflation data suggest price pressures may persist. September and Q3 inflation surprised…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
Australian September and Q3 inflation surprised to the upside, reinforcing the RBA’s cautious stance on easing. Headline CPI rose to 3.5% y/y from 3.0%, above the RBA’s 2–3% target range, while trimmed mean CPI increased to 2.8% from…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, a rise in term premia, and attacks on central bank independence, monetary policy remains the primary driver of bond markets. In our Q3 Review & Outlook, we update our views and…
Our DM strategists recommend regional bond overweights in the UK, Canada, and Sweden, and express policy divergence through tactical FX trades: long USD, underweight GBP and SEK, and long JPY vs. EUR. Most G10 central banks are…
The RBA held rates at 3.6% as expected, maintaining caution as inflation could prove stronger than expected. Policy remains slightly restrictive, and at most one additional cut is on the table as the central bank has achieved a soft…