Australia
The NAB January survey points to easing Australian inflation pressures, despite recent hot inflation data. Growth signals were mixed: Business conditions eased to +7 from +9, close to the long-term average, while business confidence edged up to +3 from a…
Stay long Australian rates as market expectations for further RBA hikes have overshot. The RBA raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.85%, as expected, following upside surprises in recent CPI prints. The accompanying statement acknowledged that inflation is…
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.
Stay long Australian 10-year government bond futures and underweight inflation-linked bonds as market expectations are overly hawkish. Australian Q4 inflation printed hotter than expected, with trimmed-mean inflation rising to 3.2%. Inflation is now back…
Fade hawkish market expectations for RBA hikes. The December NAB Business Survey rebounded after a slightly negative November reading. Business confidence rose 1 point to +3, remaining below its long-term average, while business conditions increased 2 points…
Our Global Fixed Income strategists maintain an above-benchmark duration stance as labor market risks continue to support downside yield potential, even as the global easing cycle winds down. With policy normalization largely complete, monetary policy is…
Go long Australian 10-year government bond futures as the RBA’s hawkish tilt is unlikely to translate into meaningful tightening. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.60% but shifted to a more hawkish stance, signaling a potential hike next year. The shift…
Australia’s October NAB Survey showed broad underlying strength, with business conditions and sales hitting multi-year highs. Business conditions rose to +9 from +8, the highest since March 2024, while confidence dipped slightly to +6 but remained above its…
The RBA held rates at 3.60%, maintaining patience as inflation proves sticky and the economy stays resilient. The central bank noted that recent inflation data suggest price pressures may persist. September and Q3 inflation surprised to the upside, with…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.