Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies.
Australian inflation surprised higher in August, validating the RBA’s cautious stance and supporting an underweight on ACGBs. Headline CPI rose to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, the highest in a year and at the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target…
Australia’s NAB survey shows underlying resilience, reinforcing our underweight on ACGBs and the case for AUD flatteners vs. CAD steepeners. The August survey was mixed, with current conditions improving to 7 from 5, while business…
Australia’s July CPI surprise does not justify the aggressive easing priced, keeping us underweight ACGBs. Headline inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 1.9% in June, with trimmed mean rising to 2.7% from 2.1%. Despite the…
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB…
In a widely anticipated move, the RBA resumed cutting rates. However, with housing, consumption, and PMIs improving, we see little scope for the RBA to ease beyond market expectations.
RBA minutes confirmed a cautious approach to easing, reinforcing our underweight in ACGBs and long AUD/NZD stance. The decision to hold at 3.85% surprised markets expecting a 25 bps cut. Governor Bullock had framed the decision…
Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.