This week’s report examines the state of the global monetary tightening cycle and addresses some frequently asked questions about the Fed’s QT program. New yield curve trades are recommended for the US and German yield curves.
Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.
Australia’s headline CPI inflation accelerated to 7.3% y/y in Q3 from 6.1% y/y, the highest level since 1990. Housing, transportation and food led the year-on-year increase. Trimmed mean CPI, a less volatile measure of core…
The Aussie dollar has been among the worst performing G10 currencies in recent weeks. It has weakened by 2.1% since the DXY’s most recent high on September 28. This latest bout of weakness reflects the impact of the RBA…
The Reserve Bank of Australia was the first among major DM economies to slow its pace of rate hikes. Even though both the inflation and labor market backdrops supported a 50bp rate hike at its most recent policy meeting, the RBA…
We continue to anticipate that the Fed won’t pause its tightening cycle until Q1 or Q2 of 2023, and current labor market trends certainly give no indication that a Fed pause (or “pivot”) is imminent.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a dovish surprise to market participants. The central bank slowed the pace of rate hikes by raising the cash rate by only 25 basis points to 2.6% – below the 50bp hike…
This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…