At first blush, Australia’s labor market recovery appears to have accelerated in August. The unemployment rate fell to a 13-year low of 4.5% versus expectations it would rise 0.4 percentage points to 5.0%. However, the lower…
Highlights The US Climate Prediction Center gives ~ 70% odds another La Niña will form in the August – October interval and will continue through winter 2021-22. This will be a second-year La Niña if it forms, and…
The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained its benchmark cash rate target unchanged at 0.1% at its meeting on Tuesday. Instead, the central bank announced a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases to AUD 4 billion a week from…
Highlights A lot of pessimism is embedded in the Aussie dollar, making it a potent candidate for a powerful mean-reversion rally. The key catalyst will be a reversal in COVID-19 infection rates which are holding the Aussie economy…
BCA Research's 65-day fractal dimension is signalling a near term counter-trend reversal in the Australian dollar versus the US dollar. When an asset's fractal dimension breaches its natural lower bound, the fractal…
The 0.3 percentage point decline in Australia’s unemployment rate to a 12-year low of 4.6% in July came as a surprise to expectations it would tick up to 5.0%. The Delta wave of COVID-19 infections has been extremely destructive…
On Tuesday, the RBA announced that it will stick to its plan to reduce the pace of its weekly asset purchases from AUD 5 billion to AUD 4 billion starting in September. Moreover, the possibility of another taper in November is…
Highlights The dollar is fighting a tug of war between two diverging forces: an economic slowdown around the world but plunging real interest rates in the US. The litmus test for determining which force will gain the upper hand is if…
The Australian dollar has been under pressure recently, falling below its 40-week moving average on June 18. AUD/USD is down 7.5% since its late-February apex and over the past three months it has been among the worst performing…