In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
Mixed signals from the NAB Business Survey reinforce our underweight in Australian government bonds and long AUD exposure. In May, business confidence rebounded slightly, rising to 2 from -1, but current conditions dipped to 0 from 2…
The RBA just turned dovish, but the macro data do not justify many more cuts. We unpack why Australia’s strong labor market and sticky inflation limit the scope for further easing.
Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate target by 25bps to 3.85%, as widely expected. After this cut, the market still prices in about 50bps of easing over the next six months. According to our Global…
A strong Australian labor market is limiting the scope for RBA easing, reinforcing our underweight on Australian government bonds. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income Strategy team.…
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
Overnight, the RBA cut the cash target rate for the first time since 2022, marking the beginning of the policy easing cycle in Australia. However, the RBA will proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, given a tight labor market and…
Our Foreign Exchange strategists recently provided an update on their US and Australian dollar views. The US dollar remains overbought and may continue rising as a momentum currency, but cyclical indicators suggest a…