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Australia

Central Bank Monitor Update: Who Can Land The Economy Softly?

Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies. 

Global Fixed Income Strategy, European Investment Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Deborah Acri, Jeremie Peloso, Eugenia Pan
Hotter CPI Validates RBA Caution, ACGBs Still Unattractive
Australian inflation surprised higher in August, validating the RBA’s cautious stance and supporting an underweight on ACGBs. Headline CPI rose to 3.0% y/y from 2.8%, the highest in a year and at the top of the RBA’s 2-3% target range. While the central bank…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Resilient NAB Survey Undercuts Dovish RBA Pricing
Australia’s NAB survey shows underlying resilience, reinforcing our underweight on ACGBs and the case for AUD flatteners vs. CAD steepeners. The August survey was mixed, with current conditions improving to 7 from 5, while business confidence softened to 4…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Trading Global Yield Curves: Where Steepeners Still Work

Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Market Too Dovish on RBA as CPI Rebounds
Australia’s July CPI surprise does not justify the aggressive easing priced, keeping us underweight ACGBs. Headline inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y from 1.9% in June, with trimmed mean rising to 2.7% from 2.1%. Despite the rebound, inflation remains…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
RBA Cuts Again, But Market Pricing Is Still Too Dovish
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB yields roughly…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Future RBA Easing Is Already Priced

In a widely anticipated move, the RBA resumed cutting rates. However, with housing, consumption, and PMIs improving, we see little scope for the RBA to ease beyond market expectations.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper
RBA Minutes Confirm No Rush to Ease Amid Strong Data
RBA minutes confirmed a cautious approach to easing, reinforcing our underweight in ACGBs and long AUD/NZD stance. The decision to hold at 3.85% surprised markets expecting a 25 bps cut. Governor Bullock had framed the decision as one of timing, but…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Markets Catching Up

Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has adjusted sharply. Today’s Strategy Report reviews these developments and updates our country-level ILB positioning.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri
Why Balance Of Payments Matter: A Chartbook

In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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