Governor Lowe refrained from cutting rates this month, but he acknowledged that the household sector continues to be hampered by dwindling real estate wealth and slowing income growth. Furthermore, he also highlighted that global…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of our country Monitors are now forecasting monetary policy on hold, apart from Australia and New Zealand where looser policy is…
Highlights The deceleration in global growth that began in 2018 is entering a transition phase. The bottoming out process could prove to be volatile, warning against betting the farm too early on pro-cyclical currencies. Tactical…
At the end of 2019, Canadian growth ground to a halt. Not only are exports hurt by the recent decline in global growth, but domestic economic activity is also reeling, as capex remains soft, households are reluctant to spend, and…
Highlights A sooner-than-anticipated end to the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet runoff should give a welcome boost to international liquidity conditions. Moreover, reflationary efforts in China, cautious global central banks,…
Highlights Global Growth: Early leading indicators (credit impulses, our global LEI diffusion index) are signaling that the worst of the global economic downturn should soon end. Okun’s Law: In the developed economies, the…
Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on…
In his policy statement, RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlighted that the global economy remains reasonably healthy but that downside risks have grown. Moreover, Governor Lowe struck an optimistic tone regarding the Australian…
After years of commodity booms and strong domestic demand supported by rising household wealth, the Canadian and Australian manufacturing sectors have been greatly diminished. Much capacity has vanished, and it will be difficult…