Until recently, Canada had been flying under the radar, yet it presents an interesting macro case. The Bank of Canada hiked rates in lockstep with the Fed, but it began cutting earlier due to a more fragile Canadian economy. Domestic…
This week’s report looks at the US dollar, from the lens of one very cyclical currency – the Australian dollar.
Our Global Fixed Income and FX strategists published their 2025 outlook, and provide five key views for the year ahead. Duration revival: After three years of underperformance versus cash, government bonds will…
November trading was centered around the US election and its aftermath. US assets led the way, with US equities significantly outperforming their global counterparts. The US dollar strengthened considerably against both DM and EM…
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
We’ve highlighted over the past week that while Beijing’s stimulus package remains unlikely to trigger a meaningful business cycle revival, it nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline leading to a sentiment-…
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay…
This insight parses through the RBA’s latest policy decision, and makes recommendations on whether to expect any rate cuts in 2024, and beyond.