Australia
In a widely anticipated move, the RBA resumed cutting rates. However, with housing, consumption, and PMIs improving, we see little scope for the RBA to ease beyond market expectations.
Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has adjusted sharply. Today’s Strategy Report reviews these developments and updates our country-level ILB positioning.
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies.
The RBA just turned dovish, but the macro data do not justify many more cuts. We unpack why Australia’s strong labor market and sticky inflation limit the scope for further easing.
