Until now, very low global interest rates have kept the Canadian and Australian housing bubbles afloat, but rising U.S. interest rates are now putting upward pressure on mortgage rates in both Canada and Australia. This simply…
Few would care about the systemic risk created by elevated house prices if debt loads were small. However, in both countries, household indebtedness makes Americans circa 2007 look like a frugal bunch. In Canada, household debt…
Highlights Dear Client, This is the final Global Fixed Income Strategy report for 2018. We will return with our first report of the new year on January 8th, 2019. Our entire team wishes you a very happy holiday season and a prosperous…
Throughout 2018, the Australian financial industry has had to endure the slings and arrows of a government inquiry into its questionable business practices and misconduct. The final report of the Australian Financial Services…
Unlike Canada, the primary risk facing the Australian economy is not from the household sector, but rather the corporate sector. Australia’s LEI has been softening since mid-2017. A big part of the vulnerability in the…
As we wrote yesterday in our analysis of Canada, housing is of critical importance to economic forecasting because of the numerous macro consequences that it can produce. Given the considerable debt on Australian household…
As we have previously wrote in these pages, the primary role of central banks is to ensure price stability. That objective is achieved by cooling economic activity by raising interest rates, which weighs on various cyclical…
Highlights The dollar will continue to rally despite the trade truce agreed upon last weekend between U.S. President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping. Not only is this truce far from a permanent deal, but global growth…
BCA’s bullish stance on Aussie government bonds remains appropriate until there is more decisive evidence pointing to convergence of Australian growth and inflation to the other major economies. Labor market dynamics will…