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  Our fixed income strategists have maintained an overweight stance on Australian government bonds since the end of 2017. That high-conviction view stemmed from their expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would keep…
Special Report Highlights The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may consider a rate hike in 2019 if additional tightening of labor markets leads to higher wage inflation, which would help lift core inflation back to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3…
Dear Client, Early next week, we will be sending you our BCA Outlook 2019 - our annual dialogue with the bearishly inclined Mr. X and his family. In this report, BCA editors will highlight the most impactful themes for the global…
Special Report Dear Client, Next week, I am on the road in the Middle East visiting clients and teaching the BCA Academy Principles of Global Macro course. There will be no regular Weekly Report on November 9th. Instead, we will be sending you a…
Special Report Highlights The Global Golden Rule (GGR): The gap between market expectations of global central bank policy rates and realized interest rate outcomes is a reliable predictor of government bond returns. Thus, "getting the…
  Our Global Investment Strategy team recommended this position past June as a means to benefit from potential China downside, and U.S. upside. A weaker yuan and Chinese economy will raise raw material costs to Chinese firms.…
Highlights We review last year's "Three Tantalizing Trades" and offer four additional ones: Trade #1: Long June 2019 Fed funds futures contract/short Dec 2020 Fed funds futures contract Trade #2: Long USD/CNY Trade #3…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. The message now conveyed by the Monitors is that divergences between the cyclical pressures faced by the individual central banks…
  Investors are skeptical about the Australian economy's underlying strength. The NAB Business Confidence survey for the Next Period has weakened sharply, while mortgage approvals and house prices have also sagged. This…
Highlights The USD remains supported by fundamentals, especially now that its late-2016 excesses have been purged. Solid U.S. growth contrasts with weaker growth in the rest of the world, which will incentivize further inflows into…