Highlights A growing list of indicators is pointing to a potential slowdown to the strong global growth. However, the key deflationary anchors in the global economy - U.S. deleveraging, Europe's crisis, and Chinese excess capacity…
Highlights The three deflationary anchors of the global economy have abated: The U.S. private sector deleveraging is over, the euro area economy is escaping its post crisis hangover, and the destruction of excess capacity in China is…
Highlights This week, we are reviewing all our current active trades in our Tactical Overlay. As a reminder, these positions (Table 1) are meant to complement our strategic GFIS Model Fixed Income Portfolio, typically with shorter…
Highlights Slowing global money growth, export orders, and a downgrade in earnings revisions of cyclical relative to defensive equities points to a mild slowdown in non-U.S. growth. This slowdown is not worrisome, but could become so…
Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will stay strong over the next 12 months, with the U.S. surprising on the upside. Unfortunately, the global economy will succumb to a recession in 2019. Stagflation will become a major problem…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors - one of our favorite and long-standing indicators to assess the potential for monetary policy changes. The broad conclusion - the…
Highlights The Fed still wants to hike in December and thrice next year, but euro area inflation could roll-over versus the U.S. This could cause some weakness in EUR/USD. Long USD/JPY remains a cleaner way to capitalize on the Fed…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of August 30th, 2017. The model has continued to reduce its allocation to the U.S. driven by worsening liquidity condition, and it…