For the month of February, the model underperformed both global and U.S. equities. For March, the model has modestly pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into bonds. While Europe remains the largest equity…

Special Report

We are introducing a new set of fair value models for currencies. On a cyclical basis, the dollar is expensive. However, this is not enough of a reason to expect an imminent fall in the greenback. The yen is extremely cheap, and its…

The deeply negative momentum in oil prices is fading, setting up the possibility of a counter-trend rebound in global inflation expectations and perhaps even the beaten-up U.S. High-Yield bond market.

The recovery in global risk assets and currencies is a temporary oversold bounce. It is not supported by signs that global growth is on the mend. Consequently, we are not willing to embrace more risk in our currency strategy just yet…

With global bond yields converging toward the lower levels of the NIRP countries, it still makes sense to favor markets with higher nominal and real yields and steeper curves, like U.S. Treasuries (especially U.S. TIPS) and U.K.…

The BoJ's latest rate cut will not have much impact on the Japanese economy or currency. The BoJ and ECB are closer to the end rather than the beginning of their unconventional policies. The biggest policy event of the year will be a…

The setback in global financial markets has not been enough to persuade the FOMC to alter its stance. Although the Fed is signaling that the tightening cycle has further to run, the U.S. dollar is showing signs of fraying at the…