Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down…
The latest BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey reaffirms the US dollar’s dominance in global FX markets, highlighting the structural challenges of truly moving away from the USD-centric financial system. The survey conducted in…
Australia’s NAB survey shows underlying resilience, reinforcing our underweight on ACGBs and the case for AUD flatteners vs. CAD steepeners. The August survey was mixed, with current conditions improving to 7 from 5, while business…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…
The RBA just turned dovish, but the macro data do not justify many more cuts. We unpack why Australia’s strong labor market and sticky inflation limit the scope for further easing.
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.