This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing…
Overnight, the RBA cut the cash target rate for the first time since 2022, marking the beginning of the policy easing cycle in Australia. However, the RBA will proceed cautiously with further rate cuts, given a tight labor market and…
This week’s report looks at the US dollar, from the lens of one very cyclical currency – the Australian dollar.
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
Can Powell achieve a soft landing? There are some indications he is doing it. We examine why our negative stance was wrong and analyze the four growth engines that kept recession at bay. Half of these forces remain while the other…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
We’ve highlighted over the past week that while Beijing’s stimulus package remains unlikely to trigger a meaningful business cycle revival, it nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline leading to a sentiment-…
This insight parses through the RBA’s latest policy decision, and makes recommendations on whether to expect any rate cuts in 2024, and beyond.