Dear client, In lieu of our regular report next Friday, we will be sending you a special report on Australia next Tuesday, co-authored with our Global Fixed Income colleagues. We hope you will find the report insightful. Kind regards…
Highlights COVID-19: Markets are trading off the longer-term positive news on COVID-19 vaccines, rather than the shorter-term negative news of surging numbers of new virus cases in Europe and North America. This will continue as long…
Highlights While the bull market in the Australian dollar might pause temporarily, it will advance further this cycle. The key catalyst for the AUD is an improving balance-of-payments backdrop. Despite its explosive rise, the…
Highlights We expect both the Australian dollar and Chinese RMB to move higher in the coming months. A key catalyst is broad-based weakness in the US dollar. The composition of goods benefiting from the US-China Phase I deal are a…
Highlights Currency markets continue to fight a tug of war between weak incoming data but easier financial conditions. Our thesis remains that the path of least resistance for the dollar is down, but the rising specter of global…
Highlights Solid credit growth numbers from China last week suggest an emerging window for pro-cylical currency trades. However, since 2009, these currency pairs have tended to work in real time rather than with a lag. Continued muted…
Highlights Most currency pairs continue to trade toward the apex of tight wedge formations. History suggests major breakouts could be imminent. While the trade-weighted dollar has historically tended to be the best performing…