In this report, we identify 5 key signposts that will mark a turn in the dollar. These include technical conditions, foreign real interest rates, US (and global) yield curves, Chinese economic conditions and geopolitics. We then…
A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.
Dear client, Next week’s report will be on European assets, authored by my colleague Mathieu Savary. We will send that to you Monday, September 26. In that report, Mathieu looks at the European energy market in depth, and…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary A Beacon Of Hope For AUD Along with the Canadian dollar, the Aussie has been one of the best performing currencies during a broad-based dollar…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support The softer CPI print in the US boosted growth plays and pushed the DXY index below…
Executive Summary The Dollar And Volatility The dollar continues to be bid, as volatility rises. The MOVE volatility index is making fresh cycle highs and has pushed the DXY index above our stop level of 107 (Feature Chart…
Executive Summary Is Relative Inflation Peaking In The US? The dollar has likely peaked in the near term. An unwinding of speculative bets, based on structurally higher inflation in the US, is the key driver (Feature Chart…
Executive Summary Markets Priced For A Restrictive Level Of Australian Rates The neutral interest rate in Australia is lower than in past cycles, for several reasons: low potential growth, weak productivity, high household…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Dollar Likes Volatility Uncertainty about Fed policy has supercharged volatility in bond markets, and correspondingly, USD demand (Feature…