BCA Indicators/Model
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) sent a mixed signal on Monday. On the one hand, the LEI posted its 22nd consecutive month-over-month decline in December – a negative sign for the economic outlook. On the other hand, the…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service expects the Fed to slow the pace of QT starting at the May FOMC meeting, the same time that it starts cutting rates. QT will likely end altogether later in 2024 if the economy enters a recession. However, if recession…
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a lukewarm message on the US economy. Growth, employment, and prices were all relatively stable since the previous release in late-November. Eight districts reported little or no change in activity, three districts…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the structural uptrend in bitcoin is still intact. The intrinsic value of bitcoin is that it cannot be confiscated by the state, either through monetary inflation, or through bank failure, or through…
In this note, we preview the Q4-2023 earnings season and share what we will be watching.
After a tumultuous year, our Equity Analyzer team took stock on how the BCA Score faired globally. The indices are constructed for each region by selecting the top 10% of stocks with a market-cap above 1 billion USD according to their BCA Score. All indices…
Taiwan’s December trade data corroborates the signal from other Asian exporters (such as South Korea) that global manufacturing activity is experiencing a mini revival. Taiwanese exports surged by 11.8% y/y last month, surprising expectations of a much tamer…
The Santa Claus rally started in late October lifting the S&P 500 by 15.8%. However, there are signs that the rally is getting tired. Consider the following: The S&P 500 has been trading at around 4,750 since the middle of December. …
Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, the timing and pace of rate cuts in 2024 will differ across countries, representing a big sea change from the highly correlated rate hiking cycles of the past two years. Currently, the…