BCA Indicators/Model
The Japanese yen has depreciated by 12.6% against the USD year-to-date. This exceeds the 1.6% depreciation and 0.8% appreciation by the euro and British pound against the US dollar respectively. With the higher-for-longer narrative now becoming the mainstream…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that has preceded several turning-points in the last few years. This suggests a two-thirds probability of a…
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US Investment strategists recently…
Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are multiple suspects behind the…
The Fed’s ‘Sahm rule’ real-time recession indicator signals a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. But one shortfall of using the headline unemployment…
The consumption rotation from goods to services has been one of the drivers of the global manufacturing downturn. Demand for durable goods normalized after the pandemic binge. Meanwhile, consumption of services benefitted from pent-up demand as the Covid…
Our Equity Analyzer service is a stock selection platform powered by the BCA Score, a 30-factor stock ranking system. The model tends to benefit from periods of uncertainty due to its high-quality and low volatility tilt. The equity selloff starting on…
US durable goods order delivered a positive surprise on Wednesday. New orders unexpectedly expanded by 0.2% m/m in August, beating expectations of a 0.5% m/m decline. Similarly, core capital goods orders (a proxy for business spending plans) and core capital…
US dollar strength and rising real rates have created a toxic mix for the yellow metal over the past few months. Gold prices have fallen by 7.3% from the May peak and are on track to erase the year-to-date gains. Conditions are unlikely to improve much…