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BCA Indicators/Model

USD: A Bearish Long-Term Outlook
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service uses three simple rules when trading the dollar over a medium-term horizon (12-18 months). What could the macro outlook look like? What is happening to valuations? And where does market sentiment lie? The…
Daily Insights
On Resilient Services Versus Weak Manufacturing
In the past we have highlighted a dichotomy in the global economy characterized by weak manufacturing conditions versus a robust service sector. As goods spending normalized from the pandemic binge, consumption of services recovered following the removal of…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing PMI Deteriorates Further
The Global Manufacturing PMI’s 0.8-point decline to a six-month low of 48.8 in June indicates that manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the end of Q2. The forward-looking New Orders and New Export Orders components both fell deeper in contraction…
Daily Insights
ISM Signals Further Downward Pressure On Goods Inflation
The ISM PMI sent a pessimistic signal about US manufacturing conditions in June. The headline index dropped 0.9 points to a 3-year low of 46.0 – it eighth consecutive month below the 50 boom-bust line. This is consistent with the S&P Global PMI which fell…
Daily Insights
June In Review
The performance of financial markets continued to improve in June, with most of the major financial assets we track generating positive abnormal returns. The US equity rally – which had been narrowly concentrated among tech stocks for most of the year –…
Daily Insights
Sector Chartpack: Home Sweet Home

In June, the rally gained momentum and broadened due to positive economic data, particularly in the housing market. We expect cheaper cyclical sectors and styles to mark a change in leadership as the rally broadens, helped on by excess cash on the sidelines. We upgrade Banks to equal-weight, and Homebuilders to overweight. The rally may continue but a soft landing continues to be elusive - disappointment may be in store.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
China: Continued Economic Disappointments
The June NBS PMI data revealed that growth conditions have deteriorated on the margin. The new orders and exports for overall manufacturing as well as for services have not improved and remain below 50. In addition, the import component of the…
Daily Insights
Relative Valuations And The AI Craze
This chart breaks down the factor exposure of the top performers in the US large cap space relative to the largest 500 stocks in the US to see how the current market leaders compare to history relative to their peers.  The values are shown as deviations from…
Daily Insights
A Macro Playbook For Asset Allocators

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession stage (negative growth coupled and an overheated economy), our framework recommends a defensive positioning across all asset classes.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Third Quarter 2023 Strategy Outlook – They Never See It Coming

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics