The recent uncertainty regarding the health of the banking systems in the US and Europe is not having any material impact on overall financial conditions or economic sentiment. The aggressive rate cut expectations, especially in the…
This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2023.
This week, we articulate what the actions of the three major central banks that met (Fed, ECB and BoE) mean for currency markets. This is within the context of our analysis of the latest data releases in the G10, that allows us to…
Remain cautious and defensive overall. Stay long DM Europe over EM Europe. Look for EM opportunities in Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China.
In Section I, we explain why we do not see the deceleration in US inflation, the likely near-term pickup in European growth, and the end of China’s dynamic zero-COVID policy as signs of a sustainable rebound in global economic…