Special Report

In Part I of a long-term series on currency valuations, we show that a simple PPP model has a good track record of predicting long-term currency returns (over 3-to-5 years).

Special Report

Investors should stay defensive on recession risks until they subside meaningfully.

In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese…

The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro,…

Special Report

Energy and metal supplies are becoming increasingly scarce. In such a market, we will re-establish our long commodity exposure via the COMT ETF after being stopped out with a -4% return this week. We remain long equity exposure to…

Special Report

In this report, we argue that the dollar will enter a volatile trading range, before a bear market begins in earnest. That said, fundamental forces are aligning for US dollar downside.

MacroQuant is overweight bonds, underweight equities, and neutral on cash. Within the equity universe, the model is underweight the US and overweight Japan, the UK, and Australia.

The S&P 500 is down by 17% year to date, while our portfolio is up 15%. US political analysis is essential for investors but it is best done by geopolitical method rather than Washington punditry.

The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and…